Will the Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán use his veto power at the upcoming EU
summit? That is the question now. At the EU summit, which will take place in Brussels
from the 13th of December until the 15th , all 27 member states will decide anonymously
whether Ukraine will be admitted to the European Union. However, the operations are
not yet running seamlessly.
Hungarian and the European Union flag.
Credits: Justin Fung
At the last EU-summit and multiple occasions after, Orbán said that he is going to use his veto-right to prevent Ukraine from joining the EU. According to him and his government, the rights of the Hungarian minority in Ukraine are being violated. That minority has been living there for more than a century since Hungary had to cede territory to neighbouring countries after the First World War.
History
To understand the story better, it is important to look at the history and relationships between the three parties: Hungary, Ukraine, and the European Union. László Marácz, is at the moment a Hungarian-Dutch professor at the University of Amsterdam, specialized in Eastern Europe Studies. His parents left Hungary in 1956 because of the Hungarian Uprising.
“Hungary had a very soft implosion of the communist system by the end of the 80s. Also, large parts of the Communist Party were convinced that the road towards communism was not feasible. At the end of the 90s all the countries in Central and Eastern Europe started to start to develop and Hungary remained behind. This was very frustrating for a lot of people who had hoped that there would be changes in Hungary,”
While taking a sip of his coffee, he continues, “So because people wanted to have real changes and progress, I think a lot of people voted for the Fidesz party and Viktor Orbán in 2010. From that moment, they almost won four times in a row, more than two thirds of the seats in the Hungarian parliament. And that means that they could dictate politics.”
Anti-EU
In 2004, Hungary and other countries of Central and Eastern Europe, became members of the European Union.
“Actually, it was Mr. Orban’s own push because he was Prime Minister from 1998 until 2000 the first time. And that was the period when the joining of the Union was prepared,” Marácz said.
Nowadays Viktor Orbán is often showed as anti-EU through media outlets: “Hungary’s Viktor Orbán launches new anti-EU campaign”, Deutsche Welle, “Hungary’s Orban ramps up anti-EU rhetoric amid row over frozen funds”, France24, “Ukraine’s Hungarians in spotlight as Orbán threatens to block EU accession”, The Guardian. But would Hungary or Orbán really leave?
He continues, “They would never do it. There is still a large support for European issues. What changed is that some Hungarians have taken a different political stance. If you look at the 20th century, Hungary has always been a following the mainstream of politics in Central Europe. Nowadays, they sometimes say no. And that is new. They have learned by saying no, you can very effectively negotiate. And on the other side though, it is good for the European Union to have one or two countries that have opposition.”
Teun Janssen, an expert at the Dutch International Relations Institute Clingendael who specialises in Eastern and Central Europe, agrees. “He [Orbán] talks about the EU if it is a new Soviet Union. This is another empire that is trying to take our rights. I think he is using his veto-right because it is easy to say ‘oh look at Ukraine: they are oppressing a great minority,’ but in the background, he will always say something different.”
Minority in Ukraine
According to Orbán and his government, the reasons for using the veto-right against Ukraine, is because of the Hungarian minority that lives in Ukraine. The Ukrainian government does not guarantee Hungarian-language education to its Hungarian speaking population of about 150,000.
“It is true that they have a hard time in Ukraine. They cannot use their own language for educational reasons. The Hungarian foreign policy is very strict on this issue because in the European Union, we have minority human rights that should be respected by countries,” Marácz said.
Hungarian citizens
“I am not sure how good idea it is for Ukraine to join the EU right now,” said Anna Halász, a 23-year old girl from Budapest. While explaining the story in a café, Anna continues, “Even though I am supporting Ukraine 100% and I think they would also have the right to join the EU, I think that some negotiation needs to be taken regarding the change of the country. I do not support Orbán’s veto-right, I think he should support Ukraine joining the EU, although with some kind of conditions.”
Márk, a 25-year old man from Western Transdanubia, a region in western Hungary, says the following:
“It is a bit complex and I do not know where it would escalate. And I would not say it is okay that he [Orbán] is having the veto-right. But Hungary tends to be a country that always threatens the EU with a veto-right.”
“I think Ukraine should have joined the EU ten years ago, when it was only a problem with their prime minister and people were making riots on the street. It is still a matter of question, why only now would they let Ukraine join, why not earlier? So, I believe now, that the act of making Ukraine a member, would be purely political initiative and that would be a clear indication for a no to let it happen. Otherwise, if the war would just stop tomorrow or Russia and Ukraine would agree on a temporary peace period, it would make sense to let Ukraine become a member of the EU. So in that case it would be a big yes,” Márk said.
Future
The main question still remains if Orbán really is going to use his veto-right on the upcoming summit. Marácz nods his head while answering, “Yes, it is possible. He is using the same negotiation tactic, by threating them. His government has used their veto-right several times before in NATO meetings, especially with meetings about Ukraine.”
But what will happen if he is using his veto-right?
“Well, there are, of course, tensions at the moment. We need to be very precise because Hungary is not delivering weapons to Ukraine. And the argumentation is that if you want to stop the war, you don’t need to send weapons. But help people, offer humanitarian help and support to Ukraine. And another reason, is that some countries in the EU are sceptical about Ukraine becoming a member. Like France, for example. They ‘hide’ behind Hungary, because then they do not have to openly express what they think.”
“But personally, I cannot imagine Ukraine could be a member state within the near future. There are so many complicated factors.”
*Márk’s full name is known by the editors. He did not feel safe to share his whole name.